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Empirically Based Composite Fracture Prediction Model From the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women (GLOW)

Identifieur interne : 004186 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004185; suivant : 004187

Empirically Based Composite Fracture Prediction Model From the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women (GLOW)

Auteurs : Gordon Fitzgerald [États-Unis] ; Juliet E. Compston [Royaume-Uni] ; Roland D. Chapurlat [France] ; Johannes Pfeilschifter [Allemagne] ; Cyrus Cooper [Royaume-Uni] ; David W. Jr Hosmer [États-Unis] ; Jonathan D. Adachi [Canada] ; Frederick A. Jr Anderson [États-Unis] ; Adolfo Diez-Perez [Espagne] ; Susan L. Greenspan [États-Unis] ; J. Coen Netelenbos [Pays-Bas] ; Jeri W. Nieves [États-Unis] ; Maurizio Rossini [Italie] ; Nelson B. Watts [États-Unis] ; Frederick H. Hooven [États-Unis] ; Andrea Z. Lacroix [États-Unis] ; Lyn March [Australie] ; Christian Roux [France] ; Kenneth G. Saag [États-Unis] ; Ethel S. Siris [États-Unis] ; Stuart Silverman ; Stephen H. Gehlbach [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : Pascal:14-0114284

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Context: Several fracture prediction models that combine fractures at different sites into a composite outcome are in current use. However, to the extent individual fracture sites have differing risk factor profiles, model discrimination is impaired. Objective: The objective of the study was to improve model discrimination by developing a 5-year composite fracture prediction model for fracture sites that display similar risk profiles. Design: This was a prospective, observational cohort study. Setting: The study was conducted at primary care practices in 10 countries. Patients: Women aged 55 years or older participated in the study. Intervention: Self-administered questionnaires collected data on patient characteristics, fracture risk factors, and previous fractures. Main Outcome Measure: The main outcome is time to first clinical fracture of hip, pelvis, upper leg, clavicle, or spine, each of which exhibits a strong association with advanced age. Results: Of four composite fracture models considered, model discrimination (c index) is highest for an age-related fracture model (c index of 0.75, 47 066 women), and lowest for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) major fracture and a 10-site model (c indices of 0.67 and 0.65). The un-adjusted increase in fracture risk for an additional 10 years of age ranges from 80% to 180% for the individual bones in the age-associated model. Five other fracture sites not considered for the age-associated model (upper arm/shoulder, rib, wrist, lower leg, and ankle) have age associations for an additional 10 years of age from a 10% decrease to a 60% increase. Conclusions: After examining results for 10 different bone fracture sites, advanced age appeared the single best possibility for uniting several different sites, resulting in an empirically based composite fracture risk model.

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Le document en format XML

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<title xml:lang="en" level="a">Empirically Based Composite Fracture Prediction Model From the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women (GLOW)</title>
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<inist:fA14 i1="05">
<s1>Medical Research Council Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton General Hospital</s1>
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<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Southampton SO16 6YD</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
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<inist:fA14 i1="06">
<s1>National Institute for Health Research Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, University of Oxford</s1>
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</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
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<author>
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<s1>Center for Outcomes Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School</s1>
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<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
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<country>États-Unis</country>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Adachi, Jonathan D" sort="Adachi, Jonathan D" uniqKey="Adachi J" first="Jonathan D." last="Adachi">Jonathan D. Adachi</name>
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<s1>St Joseph's Hospital, McMaster University</s1>
<s2>Hamilton, Ontario L8N 1 Y2</s2>
<s3>CAN</s3>
<sZ>7 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Canada</country>
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<settlement type="city">Hamilton (Ontario)</settlement>
<region type="state">Ontario</region>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université McMaster</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Anderson, Frederick A Jr" sort="Anderson, Frederick A Jr" uniqKey="Anderson F" first="Frederick A. Jr" last="Anderson">Frederick A. Jr Anderson</name>
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<s1>Center for Outcomes Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School</s1>
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<wicri:noRegion>Worcester, Massachusetts 01605</wicri:noRegion>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Diez Perez, Adolfo" sort="Diez Perez, Adolfo" uniqKey="Diez Perez A" first="Adolfo" last="Diez-Perez">Adolfo Diez-Perez</name>
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<s1>Hospital del Mar-IMIM-Autonomous University of Barcelona</s1>
<s2>08035 Barcelona</s2>
<s3>ESP</s3>
<sZ>9 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Espagne</country>
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<region nuts="2" type="communauté">Catalogne</region>
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<inist:fA14 i1="09">
<s1>Research Network on Aging and Frailty, Le Fonds européen de developpement regional (European Regional Development Fund), Instituto de Salud Carlos III</s1>
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<s3>ESP</s3>
<sZ>9 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Espagne</country>
<placeName>
<region nuts="2" type="communauté">Communauté de Madrid</region>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Greenspan, Susan L" sort="Greenspan, Susan L" uniqKey="Greenspan S" first="Susan L." last="Greenspan">Susan L. Greenspan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<inist:fA14 i1="10">
<s1>University of Pittsburgh</s1>
<s2>Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Pittsburgh</settlement>
<region type="state">Pennsylvanie</region>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Pittsburgh</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Netelenbos, J Coen" sort="Netelenbos, J Coen" uniqKey="Netelenbos J" first="J. Coen" last="Netelenbos">J. Coen Netelenbos</name>
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<s1>Department of Endocrinology, VU University Medical Centre</s1>
<s2>Amsterdam 2131 PM Hoofddorp</s2>
<s3>NLD</s3>
<sZ>11 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Amsterdam 2131 PM Hoofddorp</wicri:noRegion>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Nieves, Jeri W" sort="Nieves, Jeri W" uniqKey="Nieves J" first="Jeri W." last="Nieves">Jeri W. Nieves</name>
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<s1>Helen Hayes Hospital and Columbia University, West Haverstraw</s1>
<s2>New York 10993</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>12 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<wicri:noRegion>New York 10993</wicri:noRegion>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Rossini, Maurizio" sort="Rossini, Maurizio" uniqKey="Rossini M" first="Maurizio" last="Rossini">Maurizio Rossini</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="13">
<s1>Section of Rheumatology , Department of Medicine, University of Verona</s1>
<s2>37129 Verona</s2>
<s3>ITA</s3>
<sZ>13 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Italie</country>
<wicri:noRegion>37129 Verona</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Watts, Nelson B" sort="Watts, Nelson B" uniqKey="Watts N" first="Nelson B." last="Watts">Nelson B. Watts</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="14">
<s1>Mercy Health</s1>
<s2>Cincinnati, Ohio 45236</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>14 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Mercy Health</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hooven, Frederick H" sort="Hooven, Frederick H" uniqKey="Hooven F" first="Frederick H." last="Hooven">Frederick H. Hooven</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="01">
<s1>Center for Outcomes Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School</s1>
<s2>Worcester, Massachusetts 01605</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>15 aut.</sZ>
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<country>États-Unis</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Worcester, Massachusetts 01605</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lacroix, Andrea Z" sort="Lacroix, Andrea Z" uniqKey="Lacroix A" first="Andrea Z." last="Lacroix">Andrea Z. Lacroix</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="15">
<s1>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center</s1>
<s2>Seattle, Washington 98109</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>16 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="March, Lyn" sort="March, Lyn" uniqKey="March L" first="Lyn" last="March">Lyn March</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="16">
<s1>University of Sydney Institute of Bone and Joint Research and Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital</s1>
<s2>2006 Sydney</s2>
<s3>AUS</s3>
<sZ>17 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>Australie</country>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Sydney</settlement>
<region type="état">Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Roux, Christian" sort="Roux, Christian" uniqKey="Roux C" first="Christian" last="Roux">Christian Roux</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="17">
<s1>Paris Descartes University and Cochin Hospital</s1>
<s2>75014 Paris</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>18 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>France</country>
<wicri:noRegion>75014 Paris</wicri:noRegion>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
<region type="région" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Saag, Kenneth G" sort="Saag, Kenneth G" uniqKey="Saag K" first="Kenneth G." last="Saag">Kenneth G. Saag</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="18">
<s1>Division of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, University of Alabama at Birmingham</s1>
<s2>Birmingham, Alabama 35294</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>19 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Birmingham, Alabama 35294</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Siris, Ethel S" sort="Siris, Ethel S" uniqKey="Siris E" first="Ethel S." last="Siris">Ethel S. Siris</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<inist:fA14 i1="19">
<s1>Columbia University Medical Center, New York</s1>
<s2>New York 10032</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>20 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<placeName>
<region type="state">État de New York</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Silverman, Stuart" sort="Silverman, Stuart" uniqKey="Silverman S" first="Stuart" last="Silverman">Stuart Silverman</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gehlbach, Stephen H" sort="Gehlbach, Stephen H" uniqKey="Gehlbach S" first="Stephen H." last="Gehlbach">Stephen H. Gehlbach</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<inist:fA14 i1="01">
<s1>Center for Outcomes Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School</s1>
<s2>Worcester, Massachusetts 01605</s2>
<s3>USA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>8 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>15 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>22 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>États-Unis</country>
<wicri:noRegion>Worcester, Massachusetts 01605</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j" type="main">The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">J. clin. endocrinol. metab.</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0021-972X</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2014">2014</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt>
<title level="j" type="main">The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">J. clin. endocrinol. metab.</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0021-972X</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass>
<keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en">
<term>Age Factors</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Cohort Studies</term>
<term>Endocrinology</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Follow up study</term>
<term>Fracture</term>
<term>Fractures, Bone (diagnosis)</term>
<term>Fractures, Bone (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Fractures, Bone (etiology)</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Longitudinal Studies</term>
<term>Metabolic diseases</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Nutrition</term>
<term>Nutritional status</term>
<term>Obesity</term>
<term>Osteoporosis</term>
<term>Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal (complications)</term>
<term>Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal (diagnosis)</term>
<term>Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Postmenopause</term>
<term>Prediction</term>
<term>Predictive factor</term>
<term>Prognosis</term>
<term>Risk Factors</term>
<term>Woman</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Facteurs de l'âge</term>
<term>Facteurs de risque</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Fractures osseuses (diagnostic)</term>
<term>Fractures osseuses (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Fractures osseuses (étiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Ostéoporose post-ménopausique ()</term>
<term>Ostéoporose post-ménopausique (diagnostic)</term>
<term>Ostéoporose post-ménopausique (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Pronostic</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
<term>Études de cohortes</term>
<term>Études longitudinales</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="complications" xml:lang="en">
<term>Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnosis" xml:lang="en">
<term>Fractures, Bone</term>
<term>Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnostic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Fractures osseuses</term>
<term>Ostéoporose post-ménopausique</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Fractures, Bone</term>
<term>Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="etiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Fractures, Bone</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Fractures osseuses</term>
<term>Ostéoporose post-ménopausique</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="étiologie" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Fractures osseuses</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en">
<term>Age Factors</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Cohort Studies</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Longitudinal Studies</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Prognosis</term>
<term>Risk Factors</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Facteurs de l'âge</term>
<term>Facteurs de risque</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Fracture</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Ostéoporose post-ménopausique</term>
<term>Pronostic</term>
<term>Prédiction</term>
<term>Facteur prédictif</term>
<term>Ostéoporose</term>
<term>Modèle</term>
<term>Etude longitudinale</term>
<term>Postménopause</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Femme</term>
<term>Endocrinologie</term>
<term>Maladie métabolique</term>
<term>Nutrition</term>
<term>Obésité</term>
<term>Etat nutritionnel</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
<term>Études de cohortes</term>
<term>Études longitudinales</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Femme</term>
<term>Nutrition</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Context: Several fracture prediction models that combine fractures at different sites into a composite outcome are in current use. However, to the extent individual fracture sites have differing risk factor profiles, model discrimination is impaired. Objective: The objective of the study was to improve model discrimination by developing a 5-year composite fracture prediction model for fracture sites that display similar risk profiles. Design: This was a prospective, observational cohort study. Setting: The study was conducted at primary care practices in 10 countries. Patients: Women aged 55 years or older participated in the study. Intervention: Self-administered questionnaires collected data on patient characteristics, fracture risk factors, and previous fractures. Main Outcome Measure: The main outcome is time to first clinical fracture of hip, pelvis, upper leg, clavicle, or spine, each of which exhibits a strong association with advanced age. Results: Of four composite fracture models considered, model discrimination (c index) is highest for an age-related fracture model (c index of 0.75, 47 066 women), and lowest for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) major fracture and a 10-site model (c indices of 0.67 and 0.65). The un-adjusted increase in fracture risk for an additional 10 years of age ranges from 80% to 180% for the individual bones in the age-associated model. Five other fracture sites not considered for the age-associated model (upper arm/shoulder, rib, wrist, lower leg, and ankle) have age associations for an additional 10 years of age from a 10% decrease to a 60% increase. Conclusions: After examining results for 10 different bone fracture sites, advanced age appeared the single best possibility for uniting several different sites, resulting in an empirically based composite fracture risk model.</div>
</front>
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<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>Canada</li>
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<li>France</li>
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<li>Pays-Bas</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
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<li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li>
<li>Catalogne</li>
<li>Communauté de Madrid</li>
<li>Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</li>
<li>Ontario</li>
<li>Oxfordshire</li>
<li>Pennsylvanie</li>
<li>Rhône-Alpes</li>
<li>État de New York</li>
<li>Île-de-France</li>
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<settlement>
<li>Hamilton (Ontario)</li>
<li>Lyon</li>
<li>Oxford</li>
<li>Paris</li>
<li>Pittsburgh</li>
<li>Sydney</li>
</settlement>
<orgName>
<li>Université McMaster</li>
<li>Université d'Oxford</li>
<li>Université de Pittsburgh</li>
</orgName>
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<name sortKey="Silverman, Stuart" sort="Silverman, Stuart" uniqKey="Silverman S" first="Stuart" last="Silverman">Stuart Silverman</name>
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<name sortKey="Fitzgerald, Gordon" sort="Fitzgerald, Gordon" uniqKey="Fitzgerald G" first="Gordon" last="Fitzgerald">Gordon Fitzgerald</name>
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<name sortKey="Nieves, Jeri W" sort="Nieves, Jeri W" uniqKey="Nieves J" first="Jeri W." last="Nieves">Jeri W. Nieves</name>
<name sortKey="Saag, Kenneth G" sort="Saag, Kenneth G" uniqKey="Saag K" first="Kenneth G." last="Saag">Kenneth G. Saag</name>
<name sortKey="Siris, Ethel S" sort="Siris, Ethel S" uniqKey="Siris E" first="Ethel S." last="Siris">Ethel S. Siris</name>
<name sortKey="Watts, Nelson B" sort="Watts, Nelson B" uniqKey="Watts N" first="Nelson B." last="Watts">Nelson B. Watts</name>
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<name sortKey="Compston, Juliet E" sort="Compston, Juliet E" uniqKey="Compston J" first="Juliet E." last="Compston">Juliet E. Compston</name>
</noRegion>
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<name sortKey="Cooper, Cyrus" sort="Cooper, Cyrus" uniqKey="Cooper C" first="Cyrus" last="Cooper">Cyrus Cooper</name>
</country>
<country name="France">
<region name="Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes">
<name sortKey="Chapurlat, Roland D" sort="Chapurlat, Roland D" uniqKey="Chapurlat R" first="Roland D." last="Chapurlat">Roland D. Chapurlat</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Roux, Christian" sort="Roux, Christian" uniqKey="Roux C" first="Christian" last="Roux">Christian Roux</name>
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<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Pfeilschifter, Johannes" sort="Pfeilschifter, Johannes" uniqKey="Pfeilschifter J" first="Johannes" last="Pfeilschifter">Johannes Pfeilschifter</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Canada">
<region name="Ontario">
<name sortKey="Adachi, Jonathan D" sort="Adachi, Jonathan D" uniqKey="Adachi J" first="Jonathan D." last="Adachi">Jonathan D. Adachi</name>
</region>
</country>
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<region name="Catalogne">
<name sortKey="Diez Perez, Adolfo" sort="Diez Perez, Adolfo" uniqKey="Diez Perez A" first="Adolfo" last="Diez-Perez">Adolfo Diez-Perez</name>
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<name sortKey="Diez Perez, Adolfo" sort="Diez Perez, Adolfo" uniqKey="Diez Perez A" first="Adolfo" last="Diez-Perez">Adolfo Diez-Perez</name>
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<name sortKey="Netelenbos, J Coen" sort="Netelenbos, J Coen" uniqKey="Netelenbos J" first="J. Coen" last="Netelenbos">J. Coen Netelenbos</name>
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<country name="Australie">
<region name="Nouvelle-Galles du Sud">
<name sortKey="March, Lyn" sort="March, Lyn" uniqKey="March L" first="Lyn" last="March">Lyn March</name>
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